Romney has been saying that Santorum and Gingrich can’t get the Republican Presidential nomination because the delegate math does not work out for either of them. I have been tracking the numbers, and Romney has a case.
Using numbers from RealClearPolitics, the number of delegates that the four remaining candidates have follows with the number of delegates that each needs to win the nomination.
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The key column is that Romney needs 48.1% of the remaining delegates to win compared to 67.4% for Santorum and 74.5% for Gingrich. It may not seem like there is a significant difference between the 48.1% and 74.5%, but there is.
Note also that Romney has 496 delegates compared to a combined 444 delegates for his three opponents. I have heard a lot of talk on the TV criticizing Romney for not securing the nomination after a little more than two months of primary contests. According to the critics, Romney should have won the nomination despite the fact that only 940 delegates have been chosen when 1144 are needed for nomination. Apparently, it is not important that Romney has more delegates than all of his opponents. Last night was not a good night for Romney. Of the 119 delegates at stake, he won 41, Santorum 37, Gingrich 24, and Paul 3 with 15 to be decided.
A fair assumption is that Romney will take California, where Romney leads by 20% in the last Rasmussen poll, Utah, which is predominately Mormon, New Jersey, where Governor Chris Christie has endorsed him, and at least half of the New York delegates, where the demographics favor Romney. Remember that California, Utah, and New Jersey are ‘win and take all’ primaries. Under these assumptions, the numbers shift heavily to Romney.
RCP Source | Add CA, NJ, | Votes Needed | Percentage |
UT, .5 NY | To Win After | Of Remaining | |
To Romney | CA, NJ, UT, .5NY | Delegates | |
Romney | 805 | 339 | 32.7% |
Santorum | 236 | 908 | 87.5% |
Gingrich | 141 | 1003 | 96.6% |
Paul | 67 | 1077 | 103.8% |
Total Needed | 1144 | ||
Total Available | 2287 | ||
Romney | 805 | ||
Non-Romney | 444 | ||
Delegates | 1038 | ||
To be Chosen |
This says that Romney has to win 32.7% of all remaining delegates to win the nomination, which is about what he won yesterday in his supposed loss. Please note that he has 39% of the popular vote compared to 26% for Santorum, 24% for Gingrich, and 11% for Paul. If you take Gingrich out of the equation and split his vote two-thirds to one-third in favor of Santorum, the results are still the same. Romney gets 47% of the vote to Santorum’s 42% with Paul getting 11%.
Let’s make an additional assumption, which is that each of us has $100 to donate to a candidate. Would you send Romney the money when you know he will receive at least 40% of the vote when he only needs 33% of the remaining delegates after his very likely wins? Would you give Santorum the $100 when he has only a 14% chance of securing the nomination on the same assumptions? Would you give Gingrich the $100 at a 4% chance of success? Or would you pocket the $100 and buy gas for your cars?
If it were me, I would pocket the money. Romney has enough money, and both Santorum and Gingrich are not winning propositions. It is clear that the Romney campaign is talking about the math to persuade Santorum and Gingrich contributors to save their money.
So why are Santorum and Gingrich still in the race? Neither can win the nomination. But they can scuttle the race and ensure an Obama victory. George Will infers that there is a struggle in the Republican Party between practical conservatives and value conservatives, and that by abandoning this race the Party differs the fight until 2016 when the crop of potential candidates is a lot more attractive. In essence, the Party is sabotaging the eventual nominee for some type of purity that will never develop a winnable message. For me, a life-long Republican, I am getting tired of eating our own. We can win this. The math is right. It is time to come together.
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