Romney’s math was presented last week to show the claim that Romney will win the nomination. That case got even stronger after Romney’s Illinois win yesterday. The following is an update of the numbers.
| RCP Source | Vote as of | Votes Needed | Percentage |
| 3/20/11 | to Win | of Remaining | |
| Delegates | |||
| Romney | 560 | 584 | 45.8% |
| Santorum | 246 | 898 | 70.5% |
| Gingrich | 141 | 1003 | 78.7% |
| Paul | 66 | 1078 | 84.6% |
| Total Needed | 1144 | ||
| Total Available | 2287 | ||
| Romney | 560 | 55.3% | |
| Non-Romney | 453 | 44.7% | |
| Delegates to be | 1274 | ||
| Chosen |
The delegates that Romney needs to win have been reduced from 48.1% to 45.8%. The remaining delegates that Santorum needs to win have risen from 67.4% to 70.5%.
| RCP Source | Add CA, NJ, | Votes Needed | Percentage |
| UT, & DC | to Win After | of Remaining | |
| to Romney | CA, NJ, UT, DC | Delegates | |
| Romney | 841 | 303 | 30.5% |
| Santorum | 246 | 898 | 90.4% |
| Gingrich | 141 | 1003 | 101.0% |
| Paul | 66 | 1078 | 108.6% |
| Total Needed | 1144 | ||
| Total Available | 2287 | ||
| Romney | 841 | ||
| Non-Romney | 453 | ||
| Delegates | 993 | ||
| to be Chosen |
The assumption that Romney will win a number of ‘win or take all states’ was adjusted slightly. It is a fair assessment that Romney will win California, Utah, New Jersey, and the District of Columbia. Adding a total of 281 delegates to Romney’s existing delegates will give him 841 votes with 303 delegates to go.
The percentage of delegates that Romney has to win under this assumption will dip from last week’s 32.7% to this week’s 30.5% of all remaining delegates. For Santorum, the percentage of remaining delegates will rise to over 90% to win the nomination. With Romney winning 40% of the vote to date, it is fantasy for anyone to think that Santorum can persuade more than three-quarters of the existing Romney supporters who have yet to participate in the primary process to abandon their choice.
The one story that the press has not been telling is the one on Romney demographics. Romney has been winning the women and other groups that a Republican candidate needs to win. Santorum has been winning the very conservative and evangelical vote. For Santorum to expand his appeal, he must change his message. But Santorum says that he does not change, and that he is the same yesterday, today, and tomorrow. He must now change his message to win. And if he does change that message, Romney will pounce and accuse him of flip-flopping, and where have we heard that charge before?
Santorum is backed into a corner with no good options. The end is just a matter of time.
No comments:
Post a Comment